Big plays are coming.īrady has three top-four QB finishes to open the season and draws another solid matchup on Sunday night against the Patriots with the sixth-highest game total and fourth-most implied points. The Chiefs are creating open looks 12% over the NFL average on targets of 10 yards or more.The Eagles are giving up the sixth-most looks on targets of 10 yards or more (10% over the NFL average).The second-best game total and implied points.Patrick barely missed smash status due to his low QB SOS for Week 4. The Texans give up the fourth-highest open-target rate on throws of 10 yards or more.The Bills throw the ball in all game scripts - the ninth-most in leading situations - which offsets the heavy-favorite spread.1 implied point total and the second-best QB SOS. Smashes PlayerĪllen looks to smash for a second week in a row: The spread doesn't matter as much for pass-heavy teams, but we are looking for trailing scripts that could cause run-heavy offenses to throw more than usual. TE Matchup Advantage (TE MU): tight end versus linebackers and safeties derived from the TE Matchup tool (matchup advantage - the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the tight end, and vice versa).įor quarterbacks, we are looking for big point totals and implied points.WR/CB Matchup Advantage (WR/CB MU): wide receiver versus cornerback matchup derived from the WR/CB Matchup tool (matchup advantage grade - the higher the grade, the better the matchup for the receiver, and vice versa).OL Run Block Advantage (OL RBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (run blocking advantage - the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).OL Pass Block Advantage (OL PBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (pass blocking advantage - the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).SOS: PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.Many of the plays below will be chalky, which is another data point I leverage for start/sit decisions in season-long formats. The content doesn't account for rostership in DFS - where you need some contrarian views to take down large tournaments. While the logic below can apply to multiple fantasy games, the primary focus is on season-long leagues. Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings I'll integrate NFL totals, spreads, implied points and proprietary PFF matchup data each week, looking for players who score highly or poorly across all metrics. Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and so is the weekly look at the top smash, upgrade and fade plays for fantasy football.
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